🔗 Share this article

A mere two months in the past when the Villa attacker found himself on the Stadium of Light pitch, seeming perplexed as the Villa manager scolded him for not reading a through-ball. During that period, as Villa failed to win in six, doubts remained whether his performances were an indicator or the source for Villa's more general malaise.

“Following Rogers' second strike… Emery discarded his jacket, extended his arms, and let out a triumphant roar.”

This weekend, in contrast, the manager's outburst was entirely much more joyous. As the England international curled home his second to reclaim the lead for Villa, the boss discarded his jacket, threw his arms wide and roared. The Birmingham club marched on to a 10th successive win and after failing to win their initial half-dozen matches, are somehow just three points adrift of table-toppers Arsenal.

Is Aston Villa Legitimate Title Contenders?

This is an exceptionally difficult question to address. Past precedent, the traditional standing of Villa, indicates otherwise. Additionally, they have not been completely commanding in many games, despite the fact the positive results have accumulated.

Per the data, on just two occasions has the team posted an expected goals figure notably superior than the other team. For a club that have strung together 10 in a row, the Villans look strangely fragile – but right now the tight outcomes are swinging for them.

The Reliant Strategy

Their recent policy seems to be to engage in a shootout with an opponent before hoping their talisman to bail them out with a couple of crisp finishes. It happened away to Leeds, it occurred against West Ham, and it happened when facing the Red Devils.

Rogers' first goal originated from a superb shot, bent just inside the goal frame from the edge of the area. For his second acted as a slightly less clean iteration of the opener as he pounced on a setup by his strike partner.

“Rogers’ right foot is now akin to Robben’s legendary left: forewarned does not mean forearmed, and stopping him is another matter entirely.”

Is It Sustainable?

Reason suggests otherwise. During the latest victory, the opponents managed more shots and more direct attempts. The team has secured their last eight victories by just one goal. The defence has been breached in nearly all of those matches.

Regression to the mean may well be the biggest rival Villa will encounter over the coming weeks. The forward, in all likelihood, cannot keep on thrashing his shots into the net's top corner indefinitely.

Reasons for Optimism

Maybe there exists an alternative path where, instead of results trending towards performances, the level of play rises to match the results. Vital cogs may yet return to peak condition.

• The main striker may begin to scoring again.
• The attacking talent could transform into the performer he was in Germany.
• Tyrone Mings and Pau Torres are due to come back from the treatment room, fortifying an occasionally vulnerable backline.

This could contain the seeds of a title challenge, yet it seems unlikely can continue to depend solely on one man.

Savoring the Moment

But then, this is a surprise. Nobody thought Aston Villa would be third at Christmas. And without a doubt two months ago, few could imagine Rogers by the end of the year would be leading a hunt for the title while looking like a crucial England player.

This remarkable period should be enjoyed for the very reason that it seems so surreal. As Rogers faced the Villa faithful at the final whistle orchestrating the applause, he appeared to be loving the experience. Which he fully merits. Such periods are rare in football and must be appreciated.